Future traffic growth calculator
This future traffic growth calculator is a free resource provided by Abley, which provides a simple traffic growth estimate under low, medium and high growth scenarios (read more).
How is this calculated?
The growth rates have been calculated based on a selection of Waka Kotahi continuous Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) counts in each Region of New Zealand. The traffic growth calculator extrapolates the historic AADT trend to estimate a future ‘medium growth’ scenario based on geometric growth. Note that this medium growth is not linked to Statistics New Zealand or any other future growth projections but is an linear extrapolation of historic data. The low and high growth scenarios illustrated were approximated using linear trendlines graph that intersected with an upper or lower bounds on the historic data and are included for indicative purposes only. The site selection for each region has intentionally excluded traffic counts on new road corridors or existing road corridors where the historic growth would be unduly influenced by adjacent infrastructure investment over the ten year period.
Source traffic data has been extracted for the cities of Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington, Christchurch, Queenstown and Dunedin, and for four rural locations - view maps of the selected sites. Growth rates for each of the named cities can be generated, while for urban areas not listed in the tool, the Combined Urban Growth Rate should be used. The Combined Urban Growth Rate is based on combined data from Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin, and specifically excludes the high growth areas of Tauranga and Queenstown. The rural growth rate is based on a combination of the four rural sites.
Please contact Abley's transport planning and engineering team if you would like to discuss more comprehensive approaches to future traffic growth forecasting.
Abley accept no responsibility for the use of the traffic growth calculator, by using this tool you agree to the Abley Limited Output Terms and Conditions. The calculator is intended to provide an indication of likely future growth based on the input assumptions and it is recommended that practitioners and other interested parties apply a wider set of tools to predict future traffic volumes. This may include consideration of transport models, future growth strategies, planned and likely future infrastructure and other planning and demographic indicators as appropriate.